Decision 2008!

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JonPorobil
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Decision 2008!

Post by JonPorobil »

I figured I'd create a single thread for the upcoming election so we don't wind up creating a new one every time something happens, like, for example, the three primaries today, Louisiana, Nebraska, and Washingston state.

With Mitt Romney gone, it's all but decided on the Red side in favor of McCain, but the states that normally have no impact on the decision do actually get a chance to impact the decision for Democratic nominee.

Last I read, pundits favor Obama to win all three of today's states, which would put him ahead.

Anyways, I'm pretty upset at myself because I forgot to put in my absentee form in time. Hell, I didn't think it would matter. Oh well, I guess someone else will cancel out my Mom's vote.

Anyone else here from Louisiana, Nebraska, or Washington?
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Re: Decision 2008!

Post by Caravan Ray »

Generic wrote:
Last I read, pundits favor Obama to win all three of today's states, which would put him ahead.
One thing I'm still not clear on on this stuff...these primaries, they are all about voting for delegates to go to the national convention - is that right? Can these dudes change their minds and vote a different way at the convention?

So when you say someone is "ahead" - does that mean much? Assuming it remains fairly close in all the primaries - does that mean you still really have no idea who the candidate will be until they vote at the national convention?
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Post by JonPorobil »

Yes, we're voting for delegates to go to the National Convention in August. They could, conceivably, change their minds, but it would be absolutely unheard-of.

Normally, at this point, it's all already decided because one of the frontrunners would already have either attained the simple majority of the delegates (50% + 1, making him/her impossible to beat), or at least gained enough of a lead to make the nomination seem inevitable, as is the case with John McCain currently.

With the Democrats, it's true that this year we may wind up having no idea who the nominee will be until the Democratic National Convention in August. That would be the first time since the 50s, but it's possible. Normally, we'd have figured it out by now.
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Post by JonPorobil »

Yep, Obama did well today. 68% of the vote in Nebraska and Washington, and over 55% in Louisiana (the numbers are a little shakier in this last state; they might be easier to find in the morning). I'm an Obama supporter, so this makes me pretty happy.

On the other hand, Huck did surprisingly well, taking Kansas (no big shocker there) and Louisiana (a little surprising), and last I heard they still hadn't finished counting Washington, where McCain and Huckabee are pretty much neck and neck. Frightening, considering how crazy Huck is, and how glad it made me that I thought he didn't have a chance. Oh well.
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Post by Hoblit »

Generic wrote:Yep, Obama did well today.
...but still behind. This is neck and neck though. Wow.

On the right, Huckabee is just wasting money now.
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Post by JonPorobil »

Still behind, but damn it's close.

I support Obama for the time being, but if Clinton gets the nomination, I'll gladly throw all my support behind her. Still, I think after this Tuesday (after Virginia and Maryland), Obama will likely be ahead. By a hair, but ahead. And then Hillary will probably win the next couple of big ones, and then we'll continue in a dead heat till one of them resigns, or August... whichever comes first.

Note also that donations to Obama's campaign are still strong, and Hillary recently had to loan her campaign $5 million out of her own pocket. Hmm.
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Post by jack »

a desperate act?

shifting momentum's a bitch hil. time to call the super delegates!
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Post by king_arthur »

Generic wrote:Yes, we're voting for delegates to go to the National Convention in August. They could, conceivably, change their minds, but it would be absolutely unheard-of.
For the primaries, I thought things were fairly flexible... most delegates are obligated to vote for a specific candidate on the first ballot, but after that everybody is wheeling and dealing to put together enough votes to win. This year, the Republicans already have a clear winner and the Dems are down to two, but if we still had seven Democrats in contention, it's unlikely that anybody would have enough committed votes to win (a majority). So once the first vote is over, things would change until somebody won the nomination. If the two candidates who start out with the most votes are at the liberal and conservative extremes, we could even wind up with a compromise candidate closer to the middle. Seems like that has happened in my lifetime, although that covers a lot of ground...

For the actual presidential election, where we have basically just two candidates in the running, I think electors are pretty much committed, and at that point, changing a vote would be very unusual. But it would also be very unusual for there not to be a clear majority on the first ballot.

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Post by Caravan Ray »

king_arthur wrote: ... Seems like that has happened in my lifetime,
McKinley?
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Post by Paco Del Stinko »

I believe that Clinton repaid her loan to herself like the next or same day, after a surge in donations. And what's with all this super delegate stuff? A Reagan years (never a good thing) addition to the wacked out electoral system. I don't want some slimey politician deciding which slimey politician has to be the slimey politician to mislead me and the country for another four years. Can't we all just pick our own slimey politician, and all on the same day?
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Post by mkilly »

Paco Del Stinko wrote:I believe that Clinton repaid her loan to herself like the next or same day, after a surge in donations. And what's with all this super delegate stuff? A Reagan years (never a good thing) addition to the wacked out electoral system. I don't want some slimey politician deciding which slimey politician has to be the slimey politician to mislead me and the country for another four years. Can't we all just pick our own slimey politician, and all on the same day?
she's raised more than 5 million dollars so far in february, but that doesn't mean she's repaying herself yet. she's probably using that funding in addition to her own loan so as to maximize her ability to advertise.

to me it's pretty sensible that party leaders get to have more say than an average joe. in idaho, all you have to do to vote in the caucus is affirm that you're a resident of the county, and that you'll vote in the county in november. in other states, you have to be a registered democrat. in yet other states, you don't have to say you're a democrat at all (idaho, again, has no party registration). on the republican side, almost all of the states are winner-take-all--whoever wins the most votes gets all of the delegates. the democratic side has proportional allotment, even leading to results where the winner of the popular vote doesn't win more delegates (as in nevada, when obama did amazing in elko, jackpot, reno, lund, whatever, but lost to clinton in vegas). it's not like there's a clear "will of the people" that can be trumped. it should be pretty clear who the nominee is going to be after march 4, in sa' allah, and just because it takes superdelegates to put one or the other over the edge doesn't mean that's improper or supplanting the will of the voters. it would be very hard for a superdelegate to cast votes contrary to what the spirit of the nation was, ultimately. while there might be faithless electors, the people who put that superdelegate in office, and gave him those superdelegate votes, would have a hard time explaining to his district why he did what he did.
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Post by Sober »

Wow. If Hillary doesn't win by huge margins in both Texas and Ohio, party leaders are going to start asking her to drop out.

I am intensely excited at the prospect of seeing Obama speak in person.
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Post by JonPorobil »

Sober wrote:Wow. If Hillary doesn't win by huge margins in both Texas and Ohio, party leaders are going to start asking her to drop out.

I am intensely excited at the prospect of seeing Obama speak in person.
I was thinking that myself. I also read an article (that I can't seem to find anymore) about how some of the superdelegates who'd supported her were considering changing their minds if she couldn't recover some momentum pretty quickly.

Still, let's not get too excited (unless you're Charles or Hoblit): Hillary's still expected to do really well in Texas, because she's got the Hispanic vote by a pretty wide margin.

On the freak-show third hand, however, Hillary has also done really well with women... until today, where Obama managed to steal even that "niche." [http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nati ... 5422.story]



So here's how it breaks down: We're likely in the home stretch for the nomination. Clinton and Obama have been fighting state-to-state under the assumption that neither of them would attain the position that Obama seems to have attained: which is to say, he's winning because he's winning. Momentum.

The party as a whole seems (SEEMS, which means it's a highly subjective observation that not everyone will agree with and might change tomorrow anyway) to be rallying around Obama now as an all-but-sure deal, in light of his eight-state winning streak. If Obama's momentum carries through to March 4 (Texas and Ohio), then it won't matter how much ad money Hillary spends on those states; Obama's momentum will carry him through, as so many people will be voting for him as the assumed candidate anyway, the way people are voting for McCain now. And if that happens, the Hillary might as well drop out, so that at least we'll have a candidate to rally around. And if Hillary manages to break Barack's streak before the end of February, then we'll go back to these one-state-at-a-time battles, and she'll have a shot at winning Ohio and Texas, and we'll be back to square one, and probably won't have a nominee till the DNC in August.

To wit: Barack Obama has a funny name.
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Post by Sober »

3-state sweep. 17% margin in WI, where Clinton polled only 4% behind yesterday.

This brings Obama to an 11-state winning streak. Texas is getting closer, and it'll likely be a near-split, which doesn't help either candidate. Hillary likely takes Ohio by a margin of 5-10%. It's pretty much mathematically impossible for her to win at this point, even if she gets the MI and FL votes reinstated (which would be disenfranchisement at its worst).
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Post by Caravan Ray »

Generic wrote:To wit: Barack Obama has a funny name.
Yeah - after the recent Georges, Bills and Ronalds - it will be nice to return to the good old days when US Presidents had stupid first names like Woodrow, Ulysses or Grover.
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Post by Hoblit »

Sober wrote: It's pretty much mathematically impossible
While I agree it looks like Obama is gonna take it:

1. 'pretty much' & 'mathematically impossible' can't be used in the same sentence.

2. I have a feeling she will take this to the end. The party will probably have to ask her to drop out.
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Post by Paco Del Stinko »

She'll take it at least through Texas and Ohio, which I believe she is considering must win territories, but you could be right, Hoblit. I like some things about Hillary, but another Clinton White House would be awful.
CRay wrote:stupid first names like Woodrow, Ulysses or Grover.
Don't forget Millard. I kind of like Grover, but that's due to the Sesame Street factor, I'm sure.
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Post by Hoblit »

Paco Del Stinko wrote:...but another Clinton White House would be awful.
I've never been quite sure why people feel this way.

I'm not asking. I certainly don't want to start a political conversation on why people hate Clinton and Love Obama and vise versa.
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Post by JonPorobil »

Sober wrote: This brings Obama to an 11-state winning streak.
Wasn't it 10?

Regardless, I think at this point, it's pretty much undeniable that Obama's got momentum—which is to say, he's winning because he's been winning. This is how almost all presidential primaries in the past have worked (remember John Kerry? He won NH, and all the other states just kind of fell in line), and it's sort of a relief to see it happening here finally. This momentum will (I project) undercut Hillary's perceived advantage in Ohio and Texas. I think more and more people are seeing and accepting Obama as our Democrat Nominee-apparent.

My ideal scenario: Obama wins both Ohio and Texas by the same margins he's been winning. Higher-ups start asking Hillary to withdraw, so that the Democrats can unite behind one candidate, and after stewing for a few days, she does.

What'll more likely happen: Obama will win Texas by about ten points, and Ohio will be very close, leading Hillary to think she has a shot; she'll keep campaigning till August, leading to a brokered convention. Damn.


Oh, and... Yay McCain!
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Post by Paco Del Stinko »

Hoblit wrote:Paco Del Stinko wrote:
...but another Clinton White House would be awful.


I've never been quite sure why people feel this way.
I didn't necessarily mean to stoke those coals, either. But I think it's safe to say for dynastic type reasons and the immediate polarization that would likely follow. Assumptive, of course. The Clintons in office again feels regressive to me, just like when George W. took over and Cheney and guys like that were suddenly all around again. Don't forget the past, but move ahead.

Also, (here we go) I'm not smart enough to figure this all out, but the Clintons and Arkansas, Arkansas and Wal-Mart, Wal-Mart and China, Clinton and China, in debt to China...is there something there?

I like to think that Obama has a chance to be less like the old regulars in place now. There is something to being charismatic and a good leader in that as long as there are also ideas, and hopefully substance as well, you can get more people on the same page. W shepherded people around for years, and I can't think of one good idea that he presented during his time in office.

Jon Eric: How's the voting machine situation going in Ohio? Is that where you'll be voting?
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Post by Hoblit »

Generic wrote: Ohio will be very close, leading Hillary to think she has a shot; she'll keep campaigning till August, leading to a brokered convention. Damn.

Oh, and... Yay McCain!
And she'd be right. She still has a shot.

And IMO, she has a better chance to beat McCain. (I don't think Obama really has a chance against McCain personally... even if thats against some preliminary information.)
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Post by JonPorobil »

Paco Del Stinko wrote: Jon Eric: How's the voting machine situation going in Ohio? Is that where you'll be voting?
I had planned originally to continue voting absentee in Louisiana, but I forgot to send out for a ballot in time, so I'm going to finally get around to registering in Ohio for the March primary.

I'll be voting in the infamous Gambier, OH, where students waited up to 13 hours in line to vote for Kerry last election day, so I think that Knox County will want to save face after that embarrassment. The voting machine situation should be okay here. And even if it's not, Kenyon students don't tend to get discouraged by long lines. I can't speak for other precincts, though.

EDIT: another link for the Kenyon voting situation in 2004: http://tinyurl.com/2t4hta [it's a cached Google search result... scroll down to the bottom to see Kenyon highlighted.]

And another: http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dy ... ge=printer You'll have to scroll down a ways on this last one, but it's got the quote from the voting commissioner on why they didn't buy more machines. Idiots.
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