BOGO Genocide Scenario

[Gemini6Ice]

(For those who don't know, BOGO stands for "buy one, get one" and refers to sales or offers where a special deal is made on the second of an item after a full purchase of a first copy of the item or type of item.)

Suppose you give every human the same offer simultaneously: "Pick any grouping or distinction of the human race (to which you do not belong) where the number of people belonging to that set is LESS THAN half of the earth's population. All those people die, but an equivalent-sized set of people (with possible overlap and not of your choice) containing YOU also dies. You may choose not to pick a set of people and to pass up this offer."

The deaths happen as soon as a person picks a group of people. Assume that no two people manage to reach a resolute decision simultaneously. The set-size restriction remains relative to the earth's population at the BEGINNING of the scenario. So, if five people remain, any person can still pick a set up to 3-some-odd-billion people large.

Will anybody survive?

[erik]

1. Does everyone know that the offer has been given to the entire planet?

2. Are the deaths from within your own group random, or close to random? Or are the chosen by someone?

3. Explain this more, because I don't understand it at all:

So, if five people remain, any person can still pick a set up to 3-some-odd-billion people large.

4. When members of your own group are taken out, are you exempt from these deaths, except when necessary, or is it always possible that you may be killed by your own wish?

5. Is the offer on the table indefinitely?

[Gemini6Ice]

1. Does everyone know that the offer has been given to the entire planet?

When this hypothetical situation came up last night we assumed that everyone knew that all humans had the same deal. However, I suppose this parameter could ildly change the results. I'd like to say "yes" to your question, but I think leaving this one open to debate could be more interesting.

2. Are the deaths from within your own group random, or close to random? Or are the chosen by someone?

Once you choose a group of size X that you are not in to have offed, let there be some finite list of all groups of about-size-X that you belong to. (Each group's members have some trait, characteristic, aspect, or detail in common. But since the commonality can be just about anything, it's about as close to random as you get, I suppose.) One random group from this list is then killed as well. If some people get killed "multiple times" by being members of multiple offed groups, so be it. But once you die once (or more times) you remain dead.

An interesting variant to this is that we could pick the group on the list that is most like some alteration of the group originally chosen by the person in question.

3. Explain this more, because I don't understand it at all:

So, if five people remain, any person can still pick a set up to 3-some-odd-billion people large.

The size restriction in picking a group is simply that, at the beginning of this scenario, less than half of the population must have belonged to the group. When there are only 5 people left, you are not restricted to picking a group that contains "under 2.5 people." As long as there USED TO BE less than half of Earth's population belonging to the group, it satisfies the size requirement.

4. When members of your own group are taken out, are you exempt from these deaths, except when necessary, or is it always possible that you may be killed by your own wish?

The retaliation deaths of your wish WILL NECESSARILY kill you. There is no escaping this. The only chance to survive is to choose not to off any group of people.

5. Is the offer on the table indefinitely?

Hmm... I'd say yes, but this causes some nasty conflicts with childbirth and new people entering the scenario. How about we give everyone a full year to make a decision (with one option being I-choose-not-to-kill-anyone) but temporarily prevent all childbirth?

[Mogosagatai]

I imagine that the population would decrease extremely quickly right when everybody found out about the deal, and by the end of, say, 24 hours, there would only be a few scraps left, like a few hundred or less people. Maybe much less.

All it takes who one person who hates whites or blacks or jews or christians or chinese or members of any political party, and there's at least one of each of those kinds of people somewhere in the world. We could hope that they get killed randomly or purposefully ("I want everyone who hates specific relgious groups to die"), but I think there would always be someone left alive who hated someone else left alive enough to kill them and die trying. That is, until the population had decreased to a steadily low number.

At that point, there's a good chance they'd kill each other off, just less quickly than the initial mass genociders. But there's also a chance they don't, especially considering the "you have to die too" factor. It's hard to say what the scraps would do, because it's really hard to tell just who the scraps would be.

[j$]

I'd never die for someone I hate. They're not worth the sacrifice. Dieing for someone I love is a whole different matter ....

j$

[Mogosagatai]

Well ditto, but there are people out there, and all it takes is one to get the ball rolling.

[jimtyrrell]

BOGO scenario #164.

Chosen group: Terrorists.
Group containing chooser: Low-Carb Dieters.

Chosen group: Atheists.
Group containing chooser: Mormons.

Chosen group: Senior Citizens.
Group containing chooser: Left-Handed People.

Chosen group: Millionaires.
Group containing chooser: Redheads.

Chosen group: Opponents of George W. Bush.
DISQUALIFIED: Exceeds 50% of World Population.
(Ha! Maybe not, I haven't done the math.)

Anyway, this was nothing more than a personal exercise to see just how this sort of thing might play out. Ghoulish.

[Gemini6Ice]

BOGO scenario #164.

...
Chosen group: Opponents of George W. Bush.
DISQUALIFIED: Exceeds 50% of World Population.
(Ha! Maybe not, I haven't done the math.)

I think the Middle East's population definitely moves it past the half mark.

I'm tempted to program a simulation now. O, if I only had time!

[Egg]

Scenario Number Egg:

Egg convinces Mogosagatai at gunpoint to reluctantly target all people who would take up this BOGO offer or who would force another human being to take up the offer. Mogosagatai does so. Egg immediately perishes as does any chance of this little game playing out any further. Right?

This assumes that less than 50 percent of the world's population would do this sort of thing, but I think that's reasonable.

Also, I have the exact same number of posts as the person who started this thread. So if you want to know the retaliatory group for the decision I force Mogosagatai to make, it's songfighters with 167 posts on the boards.

[Gemini6Ice]

Scenario Number Egg:

Egg convinces Mogosagatai at gunpoint to reluctantly target all people who would take up this BOGO offer or who would force another human being to take up the offer. Mogosagatai does so. Egg immediately perishes as does any chance of this little game playing out any further. Right?

If the number of people who would take up the offer or force another to take up the offer exceed half the earth's population, then that is not a valid group to target.

But would this group exceed half? Hmm...

[Egg]

You thought you could escape?

Now the retaliatory group is people with 168 posts.

[WeaselSlayer]

I'll take one for the team.

Target: People in the band Wolf Eyes.
Group: People in... the band I just started called Fuck Wolf Eyes. We'll make sure to have the same number of people in it, I guess.

You're welcome!

[mico saudad]

If there's ANYONE, ANYWHERE, some moron who says something like,
"Any human who has ever hurt an animal"
"Any human who lies"
"My heart is broken and I wish all (women/men) would die"
"I hate my life and I want all humans who are human to die"

Who here would take a wager that there's not one moron in 6 billion who would do some form of this?

I like Egg's idea, let's just hope he can get his wish in before the wing-nuts do...

[erik]

Holding a gun at someone who is going to die as soon as they do what you say means that the gunholder holds nothing over the hostage. "Make the wish I want and die immediately, or else I will shoot you!" Ummmm, go ahead and shoot me then. Hell, as long as I have to die, I'll just use my wish to target "People who are pointing guns at me right now" and then the gunman dies too.

[Mogosagatai]

For the record, Egg, if you ever hold me at gunpoint for some worldwide-BOGO-genocide-type situation, I will deliver you a swift kick in the crotch, and then do as you say.

[Adam!]

Assuming I understand the intricacies of the scenario, which I almost assuredly do not: [Many!] Why? It only takes two people (Bob and Alice) to stop this whole thing dead in its tracks. Bob chooses exactly one half (lets say the tallest 50%) of the people who would subsequent take up this B.O.G.O. genocide offer (excluding Alice); at the same time Alice chooses the shorter half of the group (excluding Bob). I think there are definitely enough people in the world that at least one couple of selfless big-picture-folks will implement this idea before almost everyone is killed off (read: nearly instantaneously). Even if only 0.001% of the population is still around when they do it, and even if only 5% of the remaining population would have abstained from using their new found 'gift' (which means that odds-are only 5% of this sub-sub-group will survive Bob and Alice's counter-elimination), that still leaves well over a hundred final survivors. There may be timing issues I am overlooking that render this plan moot.

A similar idea I like that could actually be implemented is the Utopian Term Paper Challenge. On the first day of the course a class of sociology or psychology students are each handed a sheet presumably of topic choices for their term paper, which is worth 50% of the final mark. Upon inspection, the sheet has only two large letters, A and B, and instructions that read: "If all 30 students circle option A, the entire class will receive 100% for the 'term paper' portion of the grade. However, if any students circle option B those students will receive a failing mark of 33% for their 'papers', and all students who circled A will receive 0%." The instructor then gives the students the remainder of the lecture to make their decision in silence (or as a variation they could be allowed to talk amongst themselves).

What would you choose? What portion of the class do you think would choose A and what portion would choose B. If the decision seems very obvious to you, for what mark associated with circling B would it become a stumper?

After all the selections are returned to the prof he reveals that it was all a little sadistic game, and that they in fact do still have to write a term paper. Bastard.

[erik]

Assuming I understand the intricacies of the scenario, which I almost assuredly do not: [Many!] Why? It only takes two people (Bob and Alice) to stop this whole thing dead in its tracks. Bob chooses exactly one half (lets say the tallest 50%) of the people who would subsequent take up this B.O.G.O. genocide offer (excluding Alice); at the same time Alice chooses the shorter half of the group (excluding Bob).

The original problem stated that no two people come to their decision at the same time. So (assuming that Bob goes first) you need a contingency plan, because Alice could be in the Bob-similar group that has to die after Bob makes his selection. Similarly, anyone else who is Alice's back-up could also die after Bob makes his selection.

[jimtyrrell]

The Utopian Term Paper Challenge:

What would you choose? What portion of the class do you think would choose A and what portion would choose B. If the decision seems very obvious to you, for what mark associated with circling B would it become a stumper?

If there is no discussion among students:

If a 33% failure weighs the same as a 0% failure, then everyone would pick A, because there is no advantage to picking B.

If instead of 33%, those who chose B got a passing grade (say, 85%) while reducing those who had chosen A to 0%, then I think EVERYONE would choose B in self-defense. A guaranteed 85% beats a potential 100%, especially when that 100% is wholly dependent on there being no one person who would take the safe bet.

[Leaf]

The only way I could see someone picking "B" is if they were in some sort of competition with classmates, where your final term mark would give you some advantage, competetively. Otherwise, EVERYONE would pick A. Logic would state that everyone would want 100%.. and anyone that didn't would get a severe ass kicking later.

BUT ..if you were competing...maybe for some final mark determined job placement or some other "Legally Blonde" scenario then I could see picking the 33%., especially if you had aced the other 50% of your year, leaving you with a final grade of 66.5 %...I think.

Your competition could receive no higher than the same mark, if they selected B.


Seems like I'm missing something here with this term paper scenario... seems kinda stupid...

In fact, this whole "pick 50% to die thingy" seems a little out there too. IT's like that whole "push this button and a person in the world will die, don't push it and you die" kinda test.

[Egg]

Holding a gun at someone who is going to die as soon as they do what you say means that the gunholder holds nothing over the hostage. "Make the wish I want and die immediately, or else I will shoot you!" Ummmm, go ahead and shoot me then. Hell, as long as I have to die, I'll just use my wish to target "People who are pointing guns at me right now" and then the gunman dies too.

You misunderstood. I convince mogosagatai to target people who would accept the BOGO proposal without being threatened with violence and people who would threaten violence on those who reject the BOGO proposal. So, mogo doesn't normally want to do this, but I'm forcing him to with violence. He therefore targets a group that excludes him but includes me. I immediately die, ending the threat on his life and any chance that somebody else will accept the BOGO proposal. Capice?

Plus, even if it wasn't a logical choice, Mogosagatai is a tool. My tool. Bam.

[Mogosagatai]

Wait--but I would still die. Retaliatory deaths are necessary.

Oh, and fuck you.

[erik]

You misunderstood. I convince mogosagatai to target people who would accept the BOGO proposal without being threatened with violence and people who would threaten violence on those who reject the BOGO proposal. So, mogo doesn't normally want to do this, but I'm forcing him to with violence. He therefore targets a group that excludes him but includes me. I immediately die, ending the threat on his life and any chance that somebody else will accept the BOGO proposal. Capice?

You're completely and totally wrong.

4. When members of your own group are taken out, are you exempt from these deaths, except when necessary, or is it always possible that you may be killed by your own wish?

The retaliation deaths of your wish WILL NECESSARILY kill you. There is no escaping this. The only chance to survive is to choose not to off any group of people.

You can try and threaten him, but he will necessarily die afterwards anyways, so your threat is meaningless.