The Song Fight Bulletin Board

Ah, but of course this is scheduled for the weekend of my wedding anniversary.

what better anniversary trip than a song fight event? you can get drunk and renew your vows via song onstage.

mkilly wrote:what better anniversary trip than a song fight event? you can get drunk and renew your vows via song onstage.

My wife is more of the Bed & Breakfast persuasion. Also she abhors encores.

<a href="http://www.poetv.com/video.php?vid=3191">Encore</a>?

kill_me_sarah wrote:Ah, but of course this is scheduled for the weekend of my wedding anniversary.

we celebrate on the seventeenth, so we're in the same boat
But money is the reason that I cannot promote
A bloody hams reunion, never mind performances by Gert or redcar
Alas, I shall be home on the coast, alone, and afar.

Damn this is getting fun.
Not sure if I'll ever be done...

Leaf wrote: we celebrate on the seventeenth, so we're in the same boat

Really? Ours too.

Wow, what are the chances in that? About 1 in 365?

fluffy wrote:Wow, what are the chances in that? About 1 in 365?

Except during leap years.

Does anyone purposefully get married on February 29?

Hm, probably, come to think of it.

I think we need to be there as Gert!!!!

I would love to be there. Be nice to see all you people again. I felt bad about Boston cuz I had to be there a day late. Is JB putting us all up?

fluffy wrote:Does anyone purposefully get married on February 29?

Hm, probably, come to think of it.

If I can trick somebody into (dating) marrying me, I'm SO gonna do that. And I'll definitely invite you. Unless it's you I'm marrying...

fluffy wrote:Wow, what are the chances in that? About 1 in 365?

I imagine that this goes for anniversaries as well...
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/stor ... Id=4542341

SPUD

Hoblit wrote: If I can trick somebody into (dating) marrying me, I'm SO gonna do that. And I'll definitely invite you. Unless it's you I'm marrying...

In which case, I think you should probably invite him anyway.

SPUD

The birthday problem is a subtly different problem, which has a vastly different answer. The birthday problem is whether any two people have the same birthday in a room, which is a much more frequent possibility than whether one person has the same birthday as one other specific individual.

In the birthday problem you can break it down into a Poisson distribution only with n(n-1) events (for n people). The chances of one event happening is 1 in 365, so the chance of it NOT happening is 364 in 365, so the chances of any two people in a room sharing a birthday is 1-(364/365)^(n*(n-1)).

The chances of two specific people sharing the same birthday is 1 in 365, though. (And the chances of a set of N people sharing the same birthday as one specific person is 1-(364/265)^n.)

Of course, I agree, since your math is correct.

However, the question is unclear. "Wow, what are the chances" does not address the question of whether you are comparing two people or the entire songfight community.

If the question is the former, your analysis applies. If it is the latter, I would say that the chances are very high indeed.

SPUD

I was just referring to the chances of those two particular people.

That was unclear. It came across to me more like "what are the chances that someone would have the same anniversary", since the respondant was a random songfight person responding only because he happened to have the same anniversary.

edit: O.K. upon rereading the context, I see why you were referring to those two only. It wasn't as random as I thought. I guess I shouldn't get behind on these threads...

Focus, people, focus. Split the thread if you must speak of mathematics.

The probability that jb asks for a thread to get back on topic approaches 1 as time goes on, via 1-(1-d)^p for damping factor d and post count p. The damping factor varies from 0 to 1 based on how vested jb is in the actual thread.

So! Atlanta! Yes.

My wife, apropos of nothing, just suggested we get family members to babysit the twins so that we can attend SFL2K7. Who am I to say no? Logistical issues to be worked out, but -- we might be there.

MintyHandy wrote:My wife, apropos of nothing, just suggested we get family members to babysit the twins so that we can attend SFL2K7. Who am I to say no? Logistical issues to be worked out, but -- we might be there.

Sweeeet.

I'm about 60% there right now. I need to figure out hotel rooms, but if that goes well, I shall be there.

I forgot to get back to this after checking on the scheduling details. The BeWells will be there this year. My sister now lives in Nashville, so I will be flying out from California for a two week vacation around the Tennessee area. I am working on scheduling everything with the Live event right in the middle. And we will do our best to leave the saccharine at home if we try for the live fight.